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MNI UK Inflation Insight

UK DATA
  • Yesterday’s UK inflation saw a huge downside miss on both headline, core and services.
  • On the services side, air fares were a decent contributor but the weakness was more widespread than that with restaurants and hotels a decent driver here.
  • We noted in our inflation preview that a services CPI number notably softer than 7.2%Y/Y (absent some strange temporary factors) would be enough to move market pricing for today’s MPC meeting to around 50/50 and that is broadly where we sit at the time of writing.
  • The MNI Markets team now expect a much more split decision at today's meeting. We are pretty much on the fence whether we see a hike or not. Even if we do see a hike, we would now expect more dovish dissenters than Dhingra alone.
  • We discuss the potential market reaction.
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