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MNI UK Inflation Insight: October 2024

We look at the persistence of the upside surprises and the implications for the MPC.
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  • UK inflation came in a little higher than the BOE’s slightly above consensus forecast – with the upside risks that we had been flagging in our preview to second hand car prices and air fares both crystalising to see headline CPI increase to 2.28%Y/Y.
  • That is a 0.60ppt increase, 0.05ppt more than the BOE’s November MPR had baked in, but 0.13ppt above the MNI mean (and one tenth above the MNI median).
  • Of the 0.60ppt increase in headline CPI, there was an expected contribution of 0.57ppt from utilities alone – with other categories generally balancing each other out (although energy had a smaller 0.49ppt contribution due to a negative contribution from petrol/diesel).
  • We think most of the upside surprises will remain higher persistently but we don't think there is enough here to see the BOE move away from it's "gradual" path for the next couple of quarters.

For the full document see: MNI UK Inflation Insight - November 2024 Release.pdf

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  • UK inflation came in a little higher than the BOE’s slightly above consensus forecast – with the upside risks that we had been flagging in our preview to second hand car prices and air fares both crystalising to see headline CPI increase to 2.28%Y/Y.
  • That is a 0.60ppt increase, 0.05ppt more than the BOE’s November MPR had baked in, but 0.13ppt above the MNI mean (and one tenth above the MNI median).
  • Of the 0.60ppt increase in headline CPI, there was an expected contribution of 0.57ppt from utilities alone – with other categories generally balancing each other out (although energy had a smaller 0.49ppt contribution due to a negative contribution from petrol/diesel).
  • We think most of the upside surprises will remain higher persistently but we don't think there is enough here to see the BOE move away from it's "gradual" path for the next couple of quarters.

For the full document see: MNI UK Inflation Insight - November 2024 Release.pdf