CANADA OCT CPI 2.0% YOY IN LINE W/ FORECASTS, PRIOR 1.6%

CORRECTED-MNI: Gas Base Effect Pulls Canada CPI Back Up To 2%

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Policy Support In 2025: NDRC

MNI CBRT WATCH: Rates To Hold As Inflation Forecast Raised

MNI NBH WATCH: Rates Held At 6.5% As Expected

MNI BRIEF: NDRC Considering Trade-in Scheme Next Steps

MNI: US REDBOOK: NOV STORE SALES +4.9% V YR AGO MO

MNI: US OCT HOUSING STARTS 1.311M; PERMITS 1.416M

MNI: CANADA OCT CPI INFLATION +0.4% M/M, +2.0% YY

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI UK Inflation Preview - October 2024

Utilities prices to increase headline CPI, but services expected stable - we discuss the upside risks.
HomepageInflation InsightCEEMEAUKMarketsStory
MNI (LONDON)
  • After reaching its near-term trough in September, UK CPI is expected to increase in October, largely driven by utilities prices, but the main focus will remain on services inflation which is expected to remain broadly unchanged.
  • Consensus expects the more important services CPI to print broadly around the same level as in September (MNI median 4.9%, MNI mean 4.91%, Bloomberg consensus 4.9%, BOE 4.97%). We remain wary of upside risks from air fares.
  • We also see the potential for moves higher in clothing and second hand car prices within core goods.
  • A decent surprise either way in services CPI could move the market, but if the upside risks that we have identified prevail to see a higher-than-consensus print we still think there is scope for cuts at least in February and May (which aren’t quite fully priced by the market yet). We therefore think there is potential for a bigger market move on a downside surprise.

For the full MNI preview click here: UK_Inflation_Preview_2024_11_Release.pdf

 

161 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (LONDON)
  • After reaching its near-term trough in September, UK CPI is expected to increase in October, largely driven by utilities prices, but the main focus will remain on services inflation which is expected to remain broadly unchanged.
  • Consensus expects the more important services CPI to print broadly around the same level as in September (MNI median 4.9%, MNI mean 4.91%, Bloomberg consensus 4.9%, BOE 4.97%). We remain wary of upside risks from air fares.
  • We also see the potential for moves higher in clothing and second hand car prices within core goods.
  • A decent surprise either way in services CPI could move the market, but if the upside risks that we have identified prevail to see a higher-than-consensus print we still think there is scope for cuts at least in February and May (which aren’t quite fully priced by the market yet). We therefore think there is potential for a bigger market move on a downside surprise.

For the full MNI preview click here: UK_Inflation_Preview_2024_11_Release.pdf