MNI: Bloc Leader Cool To Poilievre Snap Canada Election Demand

MNI BRIEF: EU Exposure To Global Trade Break "High" - Draghi

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, Sept 9

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Falls To 4.99% In August

MNI BRIEF: China Aug CPI Rises To Half-year High At 0.6% Y/y

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY88 Bln via OMO Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, IT Syndis; NE, UK, DE Due Tuesday

MNI:US JUL WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES 1.1%

ECB Data Watch

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI UK Labour Market Preview: September 2024 Release

We look at the prospects for wage growth, the unemployment rate and claimant count rate
HomepageCEEMEAUKGlobalStoryRegionMarkets
  • Overall we see downside risks to the median expectation of private regular AWE data (4.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to July) but given the large uncertainty over the public sector wage growth don’t have a strong view surrounding the 5.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to July that consensus looks for in total regular wage growth.
  • There is also huge uncertainty here due to the continued questions surrounding the reliability of LFS data. This will be watched closely but most analysts have marked down their estimates for this month so the median expectation is for 4.1%.
  • Finally, the claimant count increased again in last month’s release but the ONS noted that this was largely due to an administrative change that impacted the earnings threshold.

MNI (LONDON) - We look at all of these factors in more detail in the full document here: UK_Labour_Preview_2024_09_Release.pdf

137 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Overall we see downside risks to the median expectation of private regular AWE data (4.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to July) but given the large uncertainty over the public sector wage growth don’t have a strong view surrounding the 5.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to July that consensus looks for in total regular wage growth.
  • There is also huge uncertainty here due to the continued questions surrounding the reliability of LFS data. This will be watched closely but most analysts have marked down their estimates for this month so the median expectation is for 4.1%.
  • Finally, the claimant count increased again in last month’s release but the ONS noted that this was largely due to an administrative change that impacted the earnings threshold.

MNI (LONDON) - We look at all of these factors in more detail in the full document here: UK_Labour_Preview_2024_09_Release.pdf