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MNI UK Labour Market Review: Emerging evidence of wage peak?

  • The question we asked ahead of the UK labour market data was whether private sector wage growth was near a peak, and overall we think that overall there was something for everyone in the labour market report published yesterday.
  • In pretty much every aspect, the labour market remains tight but that tightness continues to ease.
  • The doves can point towards the easing and potential peaks of private sector wage data, the continuing rise in the unemployment rate and the rise in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio.
  • While the hawks can continue to point to uncomfortably high levels of wage data and a level of unemployment still around NAIRU the (if not below given the wage dynamics).
For the full document including summaries of the key points from over 10 sellside reviews. See the full document here:

UK_Labour_Review_2023_09_Release.pdf

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