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MNI UK Labour Market Review: July 2024 Release

UK DATA
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • On the surface this morning’s labour market report was broadly in line with expectations. However, looking in more detail at the private sector regular wage data, there was quite a soft single month print for May.
  • We think that today's wage data is a little softer than we expected (albeit in line with consensus expectations), and may actually embolden some MPC members to vote for a cut in two weeks time. We still see it as close to a 50/50 decision.
  • We look in more detail regarding how the data compares versus tracking for its Q2 forecast as well as analysing pay momentum metrics and the V/U ratio.
  • We also summarise 10 sell-side reviews of the release.
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  • On the surface this morning’s labour market report was broadly in line with expectations. However, looking in more detail at the private sector regular wage data, there was quite a soft single month print for May.
  • We think that today's wage data is a little softer than we expected (albeit in line with consensus expectations), and may actually embolden some MPC members to vote for a cut in two weeks time. We still see it as close to a 50/50 decision.
  • We look in more detail regarding how the data compares versus tracking for its Q2 forecast as well as analysing pay momentum metrics and the V/U ratio.
  • We also summarise 10 sell-side reviews of the release.