MNI: UK Prelim Data Survey - Oct Labour, Nov Retail Sales

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 18:48 GMT Dec 8/13:48 EST Dec 8

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - The UK unemployment rate held steady at its 42-year low of

4.3% in the three months to September but single month outturns of 4.2% in both

August and September means a drop in the headline rate may on the cards in the

October.

     The UK labour market remains tight and over the year has the number of

those in employment grow, though of late this trend has been a little more

subdued (there was -14k drop in the 3m to September). 

     Yet, with many people still classifying themselves as underemployed this

suggests there could still be some slack remaining in the labour market,

reinforcing the idea of the unemployment rate touching a new multi-decade low.  

     On the wage front, the general consensus among most of the analysts polled

was that wage growth could come in stronger in October as the soft July numbers

fall out of the calculation. 

     The median result is for growth of 2.5% 3m y/y which, if does materialise,

would be the best result of 2017 so far. 

     Ex-bonus, the outlook is for unchanged growth of 2.2% 3m y/y.   

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                                                            Oct

                           Oct                Oct           ILO

                    Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly  Unemployment

                      Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus          rate

                      3m % YoY           3m % YoY          3m %

Date Out                13-Nov             13-Nov        13-Nov

Median                     2.5                2.2           4.2

Forecast High              2.6                2.2           4.3

Forecast Low               2.2                2.2           4.2

Standard Deviation         0.1                0.0           0.1

Count                        9                  7            10

Prior                      2.2                2.2           4.3

Berenberg                  N/A                N/A           4.3

Capital Economics          2.5                2.2           4.3

Commerzbank                2.6                N/A           4.2

HSBC                       2.5                2.2           4.2

Investec                   2.5                N/A           4.2

Lloyds TSB                 2.6                2.2           4.2

Natixis                    2.3                2.2           4.3

Nomura                     2.5                2.2           4.2

Oxford Economics           2.6                2.2           4.2

UniCredit                  2.2                2.2           4.3

     Despite the associated headwinds from the steady increase in prices, retail

sales volumes came in at a more than respectable 0.3% m/m result in October.

Analysts see this form having been replicated in November, pencilling growth of

0.4% on both a total and ex-fuel basis. 

     The month's soft data was pretty mixed in November, with the CBI reporting

a surge in sales (following a dreadful October) while the BRC gifted us with a

less inspiring set of results.

     Black Friday may have once again posed issues the ONS, who have had

difficultly in the past few years adjusting its data for this relatively new

phenomenon.    

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                             Nov           Nov           Nov           Nov

                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales

                    Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol

                           % MoM         % YoY         % MoM         % YoY

Date Out                  14-Nov        14-Nov        14-Nov        14-Nov

Median                       0.4           0.3           0.4           0.1

Forecast High                1.5           0.4           0.5           0.2

Forecast Low                -0.5          -0.6          -0.4          -0.7

Standard Deviation           0.6           0.4           0.4           0.4

Count                          7             6             4             4

Prior                        0.3          -0.3           0.1          -0.3

Capital Economics            0.2           0.1           N/A           N/A

Commerzbank                  1.5           N/A           N/A           N/A

HSBC                         0.4           0.3           0.5           0.2

Investec                     0.4           0.3           0.5           0.2

Lloyds TSB                  -0.5          -0.6          -0.4          -0.7

Natixis                      0.4           0.3           N/A           N/A

Nomura                       N/A           N/A           0.3           0.0

Oxford Economics             0.5           0.4           N/A           N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]