MNI: UK Preliminary Data Forecasts - BOE Money and Credit

By Kieran Williams and Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - The Bank of England's measure of mortgage approvals fell in

August after a notable recovery in July and further downside is expected in

September.

     Approvals fell to 66,580 in August from 68,452 in July, though at this

level they are still consistent with the previous six-month average of 66,367.

     Examination of the series indicates that the upturn in July was a temporary

blip as opposed to the start of a sustained expansion in mortgage approvals.

     The UK Finance survey, previously known as the BBA survey, slipped slightly

in September to 41,584 and unwound the increase seen in August.

     Other data in the sector have been soft; the most recent RICS survey saw

the new buyer enquiries balance drop to a 14-month low in September. The

headline price index in September was at 6, in line with the August reading, but

the better showings have been attributed to a lack of supply rather than

increased demand.

     The median consensus of analysts surveyed by MNI is for a slight decline in

mortgage approvals in September to 66,500, from 66,600 in August.

     Analysts see secured lending on dwellings rising stg4.0 billion in

September, in-line with the August rise and above the latest stg3.6 billion six

month average.

     Consumer credit growth is also expected to have declined slightly, analysts

forecast a slow down to stg1.5 billion from stg1.6 billion in September.

     While figures in the UK Finance survey show credit card borrowing picked up

modestly in September, this effect will be more than outweighed by a decline in

personal loans for the second consecutive month.

     The Bank of England's Q3 Credit Conditions Survey showed that, on the back

of recent Financial Policy Committee warnings, lenders look set to tighten

supply of unsecured credit.

     Consumer credit it likely to be impacted in the coming months as lenders

begin to pare back on the provision of consumer credit and car finance, on top

of weaker consumer spending appetite.

---------------------------------------------------------

                             Sep        Sep           Sep

                             BOE        BOE           BOE

                    Net mortgage   Mortgage  Net Consumer

                         Lending  Approvals        Credit

                          stg bn      '000s        stg bn

Date Out                  30-Oct     30-Oct        30-Oct

Median                       4.0       66.5           1.5

Forecast High                4.2       66.5           1.5

Forecast Low                 3.8       66.0           1.2

Standard Deviation           0.2        0.2           0.1

Count                          3          5             5

Prior                        4.0       66.6           1.6

Capital Economics            N/A       66.5           1.2

HSBC                         N/A       66.3           1.5

Investec                     4.0       66.5           1.5

Nomura                       4.2       66.5           1.5

Oxford Economics             3.8       66.0           1.5

     This survey will be updated on Monday October 30.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: kieran.williams@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]