MNI: UK Preliminary Data Survey - November Inflation

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK CPI Inflation is expected to have remained at 3.0% in

November, the 2017 peak, having hit the level in both September and October,

meaning Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will have once again narrowly

escaped letter writing duty.

     The median expectation is for a 0.2% rise in prices on the month, for an

unchanged 3.0% result on the year. Likewise, core CPI and RPI are expected to

come in unchanged at 2.7% and 4.0% respectively.

     While five of the nine analysts polled thus far see CPI unchanged from

October's level, three see a fall back on the cards -- in line with the Bank's

thinking of inflation peaking in October and easing off gently heading into the

new year.

     One analyst, at Capital Economics, did see further room for growth and felt

that stronger core inflation would assist the rise in CPI to 3.2%.  

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                       Nov     Nov       Nov     Nov     Nov

                       CPI     CPI  Core CPI     RPI     RPI

                     % MoM   % YoY     % YoY   % MoM   % YoY

Date Out            12-Nov  12-Nov    12-Nov  12-Nov  12-Nov

Median                 0.2     3.0       2.7     0.3     4.0

Forecast High          0.4     3.2       2.7     0.4     4.1

Forecast Low           0.2     2.9       2.6     0.2     3.9

Standard Deviation     0.1     0.1       0.1     0.1     0.1

Count                    8       9         6       6       6

Prior                  0.1     3.0       2.7     0.1     4.0

Berenberg              N/A     2.9       N/A     N/A     N/A

Capital Economics      0.2     3.0       2.6     0.3     4.0

Commerzbank            0.2     N/A       N/A     N/A     N/A

HSBC                   0.2     3.0       2.7     0.3     4.0

Investec               0.2     3.0       2.7     0.2     3.9

Lloyds TSB             0.2     3.0       2.6     0.4     4.1

Natixis                0.2     3.0       2.7     N/A     N/A

Nomura                 0.2     2.9       N/A     0.2     3.9

Oxford Economics       0.4     3.2       N/A     0.4     4.1

UniCredit              N/A     2.9       2.7     N/A     N/A

     Input price growth eased to its lowest level since the immediate aftermath

of Brexit vote in October, falling to 4.6% y/y. Since peaking earlier in the

year in January input prices have followed a steady downward trend.

     That said, a rise seems to be on the cards in November courtesy of stronger

oil prices seen over the month.

     Output prices won't see much change though, according to analysts. The

median expectation is for growth of 3.0% y/y, marginally higher than the 2.8%

y/y result seen in October.  

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                          Nov        Nov         Nov         Nov

                    PPI Input  PPI Input  PPI Output  PPI Output

                        % MoM      % YoY       % MoM       % YoY

Date Out               12-Nov     17-Oct      17-Oct      17-Oct

Median                    1.5        6.7         0.4         3.0

Forecast High             1.7        7.0         0.5         3.2

Forecast Low              1.0        6.2         0.2         2.9

Standard Deviation        0.3        0.3         0.1         0.1

Count                       5          5           6           6

Prior                     1.0        4.6         0.2         2.8

Capital Economics         1.5        6.8         0.3         3.0

HSBC                      N/A        N/A         0.2         3.0

Investec                  1.5        6.7         0.4         3.0

LBBW                      N/A        N/A         N/A         N/A

Lloyds TSB                1.7        7.0         0.5         3.2

Nomura                    1.2        6.5         0.4         3.0

Oxford Economics          1.0        6.2         0.2         2.9

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]