MNI: N. Ireland Bill May Not Pass Commons Before Break-IfG

The UK’s Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which overrides parts of the Brexit agreement and could trigger retaliatory trade measures from EU, may not get through the House of Commons before the summer parliamentary recess begins on July 22, an Institute for Government official told MNI.

While the second reading of the bill has been completed, its committee stage is not due to start until July 13 and the timetable is very tight, as the government will need to find three days for it before the summer recess and only four are still available, noted IfG senior researcher Jess Sargeant.

"There are just four days that are not reserved for backbench business of private members bills. It is possible that the bill could complete all its commons stages before summer recess, but this would leave little time for other business and would also require the government to depart from the minimal intervals between stages of the bill," she said, adding that there appeared to be little available time on the legislative timetable and that it was also uncertain whether ministers were keen on urgently pushing the bill through.

DELAYS TO RETALIATION

Once the bill gets through the lower house, it is also expected to face resistance in the House of Lords.

While the European Commission has already condemned the bill and retaliated by resuming infringement proceedings for earlier breaches of EU law, more significant measures are only likely once it is closer to the statute books. The longer the delays the longer the UK can avoid the economic hit.

"I expect the Commission will only proceed with most drastic measures like, for example, cross retaliation through the Trade and Cooperation agreement which could lead to the introduction of tariffs, when the bill has made more progress," Sargeant said.