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About Us
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY28.8 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI US CPI Preview: Core Services Eyed As Energy Rips
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Consensus has headline CPI surging +1.2% M/M in Feb on sharp rises in energy (~12% M/M) and less so food (1% M/M).
- Core inflation is seen at +0.5% M/M from +0.51% M/M in Feb on a larger dip in used car prices, with potential risk to the downside judging by the survey skew. That would see year-ago inflation rise from 6.4% to 6.6% Y/Y, again likely the peak for the cycle.
- This should come as core goods inflation moderates further but with continued strength in potentially stickier core services after the fastest sequential print since 1992 in Feb.
- There is getting close to 100bps in cumulative hikes priced for the next two FOMC meetings. As with payrolls two weeks ago, an in-line report can still increase hike expectations as it removes a potential stumbling block.
- A large beat could even see talk of a 75bp hike but even St Louis Fed’s Bullard hasn’t broached that yet. On the flip side, it feels like a miss would have to be particularly large to steer away from a 50bp hike for May, but it could easily trim hike expectations further out into 2H 2022, with 220bps out to year-end.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE INCLUDING PREVIEWS FROM 10 SELLSIDE ANALYSTS HERE:
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.