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MNI US CPI Preview: Core CPI Seen Holding Jan Pace After Historical Rally

Core CPI inflation is seen holding at 0.4% M/M but with a likely added boost from used cars, landing with a backdrop of a historically large fixed income rally on regional bank contagion fears

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Core CPI inflation is seen holding a 0.4% M/M clip for the third month running in February.
  • It is however expected to have been boosted by a bounce in used car prices rather than more broad-based pressure, especially in light of a sizeable easing in supply chain pressures.
  • Core non-housing services will again be in focus after moderating to a mixed extent in January, whilst OER and primary rents inflation are seen slowing slightly further.
  • Powell had last week opened the door to a 50bp hike at the March FOMC, arguably dented after Friday’s payrolls report showed softer wage pressures despite continued surprise strength for payrolls growth. That already seems like a long time ago: a historical fixed income rally on regional bank contagion fears now sees only one more 25bp hike for the cycle priced, after a 100bp drop in 2Y Tsy yields in three days.


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USCPIPrevMar2023.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Core CPI inflation is seen holding a 0.4% M/M clip for the third month running in February.
  • It is however expected to have been boosted by a bounce in used car prices rather than more broad-based pressure, especially in light of a sizeable easing in supply chain pressures.
  • Core non-housing services will again be in focus after moderating to a mixed extent in January, whilst OER and primary rents inflation are seen slowing slightly further.
  • Powell had last week opened the door to a 50bp hike at the March FOMC, arguably dented after Friday’s payrolls report showed softer wage pressures despite continued surprise strength for payrolls growth. That already seems like a long time ago: a historical fixed income rally on regional bank contagion fears now sees only one more 25bp hike for the cycle priced, after a 100bp drop in 2Y Tsy yields in three days.


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USCPIPrevMar2023.pdf