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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.4% M/M in May but with skew to the downside.
- Used car inflation, despite still strong estimates, is seen as the largest single drag on the month relative to April after a particularly strong increase. It could however be offset by a bounce in hotel prices.
- For core services, key rent measures are seen softening slightly after a mild and expected re-acceleration in April, whilst non-housing inflation should accelerate but with market reaction muddied after significant differences with the PCE equivalent last month.
- The market still buys into the Fed skip narrative, with +6.5bps priced for tomorrow’s decision and +20bps for a terminal in July. Falling so close to the decision could distort reaction and whilst a strong print could dial up uncertainty for tomorrow, we see bias towards a larger reaction in the event of a downside miss.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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