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MNI US CPI Preview: Mar 2022 - Non-Core Components To Run Wild

  • Consensus has headline CPI surging +0.8% M/M in Feb on energy and less so food prices, of which the largest effects aren’t likely to show until March. That would see year-on-year inflation rise from 7.5% to 7.8% Y/Y.
  • Whilst normally looked through, non-core gains will add pressures to areas that consumers feel the most and carry the risk of a further drifting in survey-based inflation expectations.
  • Core inflation is seen at +0.5% M/M from the +0.58% M/M in Jan on a possible dip in used car prices, but with reasonable strength in other categories. That sees year-ago inflation rise from 6.0% to 6.4% Y/Y, potentially the peak for the cycle.

Please find the full note including MNI Analysis and previews of 12 sell-side analysts at the following link:

USCPIPrevMar2022.pdf

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