MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Advance 4th Qtr GDP Seen Up 2.5%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Analysts see a 2.5% increase for fourth quarter 

GDP in the initial estimate, much slower than the 3.4% gain in the third 

quarter. The very weak December retail sales took the wind out of 

expectations for a solid PCE reading for the quarter, but it is still 

expected to be a positive factor. Capital spending should also add to 

GDP, but missing December data for business inventories and 

international trade present a forecast risk. 

     Analysts underestimated advance GDP in the third quarter after an 

overestimate in the previous quarter. Missing data for the third month 

of the quarter, in this case December, is always a risk, though the 

advance estimates of trade and retail and wholesale inventories lessen 

that risk. 

                                            Final   Final

                                            Growth  Final   Median less

                                             Rate:   Sales:  actual advance:

Forecast:                             3Q-18     3.4      1.0   3Q-18   -0.2

 Median               2.5             2Q-18     4.2      5.4   2Q-18    0.3

 Range High           3.0             1Q-18     2.0      2.0   1Q-18   -0.3

 Range Low            1.8             4Q-17     2.9      3.4   4Q-17    0.4

                                                                            4Q avg/

                                                                            3Q avg

                                                                             % chg

                             Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18 Ann Rate

Indices:

  BLS Agg Hours               109.7   110.0   110.0   110.3   110.1   110.6    1.6

  Ind. Production             107.9   108.8   109.0   109.3   110.0   110.1    4.6

$ blns unless otherwise noted:

  Real PCE**                12927.5 12966.5 12965.9 13040.8 13083.3 13062.1    3.4

  Total Retail Sls            508.2   507.9   506.7   511.6   512.2   505.8    1.8

  Non-MV Retail Sls           405.5   405.9   404.8   408.1   407.9   400.6    0.1

  Mtr Veh Retail Sls          102.7   101.9   101.9   103.6   104.3   105.3    8.8

  Control Retail Sls          413.1   413.6   412.5   415.8   415.7   408.2    0.1

  Civ Cap Shipments            75.1    77.4    79.2    77.7    79.6    79.6    9.2

  Civ Cap Shipms ex Air        68.8    68.7    68.5    69.0    68.9    68.9    1.5

  Bus. Invs**                1950.6  1961.0  1970.6  1982.5  1980.5   408.2  -69.5

 Constr. Spending**          1317.7  1311.8  1287.9  1289.7  1299.9  1294.8   -3.3

  Priv Residential Cons**     555.4   540.9   530.0   524.2   542.5   533.4   -6.3

  Priv Nonresidential Cons    457.2   458.3   453.3   456.1   450.8   453.5   -2.4

  Public Construction**       305.1   312.6   304.7   309.3   306.5   307.9    0.6

 Goods Gap (2012 $)**         -82.5   -86.3   -87.2   -88.3   -80.8   -84.6   -3.7

  Goods Exports (2012 $)**    149.5   147.9   150.8   149.6   150.0   149.8    1.0

  Goods Imports (2012 $)**    232.1   234.2   238.1   237.9   230.8   234.4   -0.7

**In cases where quarterly data are not complete,

the average of the first two months of the quarter is

substituted for the third month.

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]