MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: April ISM Mfg Index Seen At 58.4>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to 

decline further to a reading of 58.4 in April after a dip to 59.3 in 

March. Regional conditions data have suggested continued strong growth, 

with the exception of the Richmond Fed. The Markit manufacturing reading 

rose slightly to 56.5 in its flash reading for April from 55.6 in March.    

     Analysts slightly overestimated the headline ISM index in March, 

breaking the string of underestimates. There have been overestimates in 

April in each of the last three years, so there is a risk of miss to the 

high side again this month. 

Forecast:                Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

 Median                    58.0    58.0    58.8    58.9    59.5    58.4

 Range High                58.7    60.3    60.0    59.3    63.6    59.5

 Range Low                 57.0    56.5    57.7    57.7    58.8    58.0

Actual result              58.2    59.7    59.1    60.8    59.3    #N/A

 Median-Actual             -0.2    -1.7    -0.3    -1.9     0.2    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

 Median                    53.0    50.9    54.3    51.8    51.4    56.5

 Range High                54.4    52.0    55.0    54.0    52.0    57.0

 Range Low                 52.0    50.0    53.0    50.5    49.0    55.6

Actual result              54.8    50.7    54.9    51.5    50.8    54.8

 Median-Actual             -1.8     0.2    -0.6     0.3     0.6     1.7

                         Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

 MNI Chicago               65.6    67.8    65.7    61.9    57.4    57.6

 Phila. Fed Index          24.3    27.9    22.2    25.8    22.3    23.2

 Empire State Index        20.9    19.6    17.7    13.1    22.5    15.8

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]