MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Aug Industrial Prod Seen +0.4%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% 

in August after a small gain in July. Factory payrolls fell by 3,000 in 

August, while auto production jobs fell by 5,000 and the factory 

workweek was unchanged at 41.0 hours. However, the ISM production index 

jumped to 63.3 in the current month from 58.5 in the previous month. 

Utilities production is expected to move higher in the month on the 

hotter-than-usual weather after a further decline in the previous month, 

while mining production is forecast to resume their upward path after 

declining for the first time in five months in July. Capacity 

utilization is forecast to rise to 78.3% from 78.1% in July. 

     Analysts overestimated industrial production in July, a 

trend that could continue in August with overestimates in each of the 

last six August reports for industrial production and each of the last 

eight reports for capacity utilization.

Industrial Production:     Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

Forecast:

 Median                       0.4     0.6     0.2     0.5     0.4     0.4

 High                         0.9     1.0     0.5     0.7     0.7     0.7

 Low                          0.1     0.1    -0.6     0.4     0.2    -0.3

Actual result                 0.5     0.7    -0.1     0.6     0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -0.1    -0.1     0.3    -0.1     0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

 Median                      -0.1     0.5     0.3    -0.3    -0.2     0.1

 High                         0.7     0.8     0.5     0.0     0.1     0.5

 Low                         -0.6     0.3    -0.5    -0.5    -0.4    -1.3

Actual result                -1.2     0.4    -0.1    -0.4    -0.4    -0.9

 Median-Actual                1.1     0.1     0.4     0.1     0.2     1.0

Capacity Utilization:      Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

Forecast:

 Median                      77.9    78.4    78.0    78.2    78.2    78.3

 High                        78.2    78.7    78.2    78.4    78.5    78.5

 Low                         77.7    78.2    77.4    78.1    78.0    78.1

Actual result                78.0    78.0    77.9    78.0    78.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -0.1     0.4     0.1     0.2     0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

 Median                      79.1    78.0    79.3    77.7    75.7    76.8

 High                        79.5    78.0    79.4    77.9    76.0    77.0

 Low                         78.7    77.8    78.6    77.5    75.6    75.6

Actual result                78.2    77.8    78.8    77.6    75.5    76.1

 Median-Actual                0.9     0.2     0.5     0.1     0.2     0.7

                           Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex.    10.2     9.9     9.9    10.3     9.9    10.1

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      -0.1     0.5    -0.1     0.4     0.1     0.0

Factory Jobs (000's)           21      28      23      21      18      -3

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)         0       1      -7       5      -4      -5

Mining Jobs (000's)             8       9       3       9      -1       6

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                59.3    57.3    58.7    60.2    58.1    61.3

  ISM Mfg Production         61.0    57.2    61.5    62.3    58.5    63.3

  Phila. Fed Index           22.3    23.2    34.4    19.9    25.7    11.9

  Empire State Index         22.5    15.8    20.1    25.0    22.6    25.6

  Chicago PMI                57.4    57.6    62.7    64.1    65.5    63.6

  Factory Workweek           40.9    41.0    40.8    41.0    41.0    41.0

  Factory Overtime            3.6     3.6     3.4     3.5     3.5     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]