MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: August Sales Seen +0.4% On Autos>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in August 

after a surprise 0.5% gain in July. Not seasonally adjusted industry 

motor vehicle sales rose slightly in August, but AAA reported that 

gasoline prices slipped modestly in mid-August from one month earlier. 

Retail sales are expected to also be up 0.5% excluding motor vehicles 

after a 0.6% rise in July, further sign of underlying strength in the 

third quarter. 

     Analysts sharply undererestimated retail sales growth in July, both 

overall and ex-motor vehicle, but downward revisions to June sales 

offset some of that upside surprise. Misses for past August data suggest 

a risk of an overestimate for forecasts. 

                         Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.3     0.3     0.4     0.6     0.1     0.4

 Range High                 0.4     0.5     0.6     0.8     0.5     0.5

 Range Low                  0.3     0.2     0.0     0.5    -0.4     0.3

Actual result               0.6     0.3     0.8     0.5     0.5    #N/A

 Median-Actual             -0.3     0.0    -0.4     0.1    -0.4    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

 Median                     0.8     0.4     0.6     0.2    -0.1     0.1

 Range High                 1.5     0.8     1.0     0.4     0.0     0.7

 Range Low                  0.5     0.2     0.1     0.0    -0.3    -0.3

Actual result               0.9     0.2     0.6     0.2    -0.3    -0.2

 Median-Actual             -0.1     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.3

                         Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.1     0.5     0.5     0.3     0.4     0.5

 Range High                 0.4     0.7     0.6     0.5     0.5     0.7

 Range Low                  0.0     0.4     0.2     0.2     0.0     0.3

Actual result:              0.2     0.3     0.9     0.4     0.6     #N/A

 Median-Actual             -0.1     0.2    -0.4    -0.1    -0.2     #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

 Median                     0.8     0.3     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.5

 Range High                 1.5     0.7     0.6     0.3     0.4     0.9

 Range Low                  0.3     0.1     0.0    -0.2     0.1     0.3

Actual result               0.8     0.1     0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.2

 Median-Actual              0.0     0.2    -0.1    -0.1     0.4     0.3

                                 Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, saar  3.0     3.0     3.1     3.0     2.9

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, saar 6.9     6.9     7.2     6.9     7.2

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.658   2.813   2.915   2.862   2.857

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A      5.8     3.6    -1.8    -0.2

Consumer confidence               125.6   128.8   127.1   127.9   133.4

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        12.6    12.1    10.9    11.1    12.3

 Home                               6.9     5.5     6.1     5.4     6.0

 Major appliance                   54.3    50.8    49.7    47.8    53.1

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]