MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: December CPI Seen -0.2% On Energy>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to fall 0.2% in December 

after a flat reading in November. A further decline in gasoline prices, 

as evidenced by the monthly AAA data, will be the key factor. The core 

CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a 0.2% gain in the previous 

month. 

     Analysts correctly both overall and core CPI in October and 

November, with the movements in gasoline prices as expected across those 

two months. For December CPI, analysts' misses have been mixed in 

direction and small, but as always with CPI, correct estimates are far 

more common than large errors in forecasting. 

                             Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.0    -0.2

 Range High                     0.2     0.4     0.2     0.4     0.1    -0.1

 Range Low                      0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.0    -0.2

Actual result                   0.2     0.2     0.1     0.3     0.0    #N/A

 Median-Actual                  0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:       Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16  Dec-17

 Median                         0.0     0.3    -0.4     0.0     0.3     0.1

 Range High                     0.1     0.4    -0.2     0.1     0.4     0.2

 Range Low                     -0.1     0.1    -0.5    -0.2     0.2     0.0

Actual result                   0.0     0.3    -0.4    -0.1     0.3     0.1

 Median-Actual                  0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.0

                             Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                      0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1

Actual result                   0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual                  0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:       Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16  Dec-17

 Median                         0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                      0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                   0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.2     0.3

 Median-Actual                  0.0     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0    -0.1

Change in:

                                     Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.857   2.843   2.911   2.686   2.413

  mo/mo pct change                      #N/A   -0.5     2.4    -7.7   -10.2

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              72.1    66.9    71.6    60.7    54.9

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           62.8    64.2    61.7    64.3    57.6

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]