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MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February CPI Seen +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in February 
following an outsized 0.5% rise in January. Analysts expect energy 
prices to decline after January's 3.0% rebound. AAA reported another 
slight increase in mid-month prices from January to February, but could 
see a modest decline after seasonal adjustment. The core CPI is 
forecast to rise only 0.2% following a stronger-than-expected 0.3% 
increase in January, with softer readings for apparel and health care 
after January spikes. 
     Analysts underestimated CPI in January after a string of correct 
estimates, as core CPI was also stronger than expected and energy prices 
surged. Misses in February have been mixed, but only rarely more than 
0.1 percentage point. The exception was a sizable 0.3 percent point miss 
in February 2008. Even with that large miss, the data still indicate a 
high level of accuracy when forecasting CPI compared with other 
indicators. 
                             Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18
Overall CPI Forecast:
 Median                         0.6     0.1     0.4     0.1     0.3     0.2
 Range High                     0.7     0.2     0.5     0.2     0.5     0.3
 Range Low                      0.5     0.0     0.3     0.0     0.2     0.1
Actual result                   0.5     0.1     0.4     0.1     0.5    #N/A
 vs median forecast             0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0    -0.2    #N/A
Historical comparison:       Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17
 Median                         0.5     0.6     0.1     0.2    -0.2     0.1
 Range High                     0.5     2.0     0.2     0.3    -0.1     0.2
 Range Low                      0.3     0.0     0.0     0.0    -0.3     0.0
Actual result                   0.4     0.7     0.1     0.2    -0.2     0.1
 vs median forecast             0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
                             Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18
Core CPI Forecast:
 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
 Range High                     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2
 Range Low                      0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1
Actual result                   0.1     0.2     0.1     0.3     0.3    #N/A
 vs median forecast             0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.1    -0.1    #N/A
Historical comparison:       Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17
 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2
 Range High                     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
 Range Low                      0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1
Actual result                   0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.2
 vs median forecast             0.1     0.0     0.0    -0.1    -0.1     0.0
Change in:
                                     Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18
AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.485   2.561   2.456   2.491   2.570
  mo/mo pct change                      #N/A    3.1    -4.1     1.4     3.2
ISM Mfg Index Price Index              68.5    65.5    69.0    72.7    74.2
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           61.5    60.1    59.9    61.9    61.0
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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