MNI: US Data Forecast Focus:February Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.1%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to post a modest 

0.1% gain  in February after an as-expected 0.4% rise in January. Energy 

prices are expected to dip after a surge in January, while food prices 

are expected to post a small gain after 0.2% decline. Excluding food and 

energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise only 0.2% after an 

above-expectation 0.4% increase in the previous month that was led by 

gains in a variety  of categories, including trade services. 

     Analysts sharply correctly estimated final demand PPI in January, 

but underestimated growth in the core measures. The misses in the last 

ten February releases have been evenly mixed, so there is no clear 

forecast risk.

                           Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18 

Overall PPI Forecast:

 Median                       0.4     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.4     0.1

 Range High                   0.6     0.3     0.5     0.3     0.6     0.2

 Range Low                    0.2     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.0

Actual result                 0.4     0.4     0.4    -0.1     0.4    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.0    -0.3    -0.1     0.3     0.0    #N/A

Historical Comparison      Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17

 Median                       0.5     0.8     0.2     0.3    -0.2     0.1

 Range High                   1.0     1.5     0.3     0.4     0.1     0.2

 Range Low                    0.3     0.2     0.1     0.1    -0.3    -0.1

Actual result                 0.4     0.7    -0.1    -0.5    -0.2     0.3

 vs median forecast           0.1     0.1     0.3     0.8     0.0    -0.2

                           Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

Core PPI Forecast:

 Median                       0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                   0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.5     0.2

 Range Low                    0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                 0.4     0.4     0.3    -0.1     0.4    #N/A

 vs median forecast          -0.2    -0.2    -0.1     0.3    -0.2    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17

 Median                       0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

 Range High                   0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                    0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1

Actual result                 0.2     0.2    -0.2    -0.5     0.0     0.3

 less median forecast         0.0     0.0     0.3     0.6     0.1    -0.1

NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward, forecast data are for Final Demand PPI and Core

                                     Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index (% chg)   -5.2     4.2     0.8    -6.2    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              68.5    65.5    69.0    72.7    74.2

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           61.5    60.1    59.9    61.9    61.0

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]