MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February ISM Mfg Index Seen 55.5>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall 

back to a reading of 55.5 in Febraury, according to an MNI survey, after 

sharp movements in the previous two months. Regional conditions data 

have suggested a mixed picture, but there is a tilt toward the upside 

after the MNI Chicago report. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated the January index after a large 

overestimate in the previous month. There have been underestimates in 

seven of the last 10 February reports, including five of the last six 

years and each of the last three years, so an upside surprise is a real 

possibility. 

Forecast:                Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

 Median                    60.0    59.0    57.4    58.0    54.1    55.5

 Range High                60.5    60.0    58.3    58.3    55.0    57.5

 Range Low                 58.0    58.0    56.7    56.5    53.8    53.0

Actual result              59.8    57.7    59.3    54.1    56.6    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.2     1.3    -1.9     3.9    -2.5    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17  Feb-18

 Median                    53.0    51.9    52.9    48.5    56.0    58.9

 Range High                55.5    53.0    54.1    49.5    58.0    59.3

 Range Low                 52.0    50.5    51.0    47.2    55.0    57.7

Actual result              54.2    53.2    52.9    49.5    57.7    60.8

 Median-Actual             -1.2    -1.3     0.0    -1.0    -1.7    -1.9

                         Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

 MNI Chicago               61.5    59.4    63.5    63.8    56.7    64.7

 Phila. Fed Index          21.4    19.7    11.9     9.1    17.0    -4.1

 Empire State Index        18.8    20.0    21.4    11.5     3.9     8.8

 Richmond Fed Index          29      15      14      -8      -2      16

 Markit Mfg Index          55.6    55.7    55.3    53.8    54.9    53.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]