MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February ISM Mfg Index Seen 58.9>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall 

further to a reading of 58.9 in February after dipping modestly to 59.1 

in January. Regional conditions data have been mixed.   

     Analysts underestimated the headline ISM index in each of 

the last three months and seven of the last 10 years in February, so 

there is a strong chance that the headline number will come in ahead of 

expectations again this month.

Forecast:                Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

 Median                    58.0    59.5    58.0    58.0    58.8    58.9

 Range High                59.0    61.0    58.7    60.3    60.0    59.3

 Range Low                 57.0    58.0    57.0    56.5    57.7    57.7

Actual result              60.8    58.7    58.2    59.7    59.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast        -2.8     0.8    -0.2    -1.7    -0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17

 Median                    55.0    53.0    51.9    52.9    48.5    56.0

 Range High                58.5    55.5    53.0    54.1    49.5    58.0

 Range Low                 54.0    52.0    50.5    51.0    47.2    55.0

Actual result              52.4    54.2    53.2    52.9    49.5    57.7

 vs median forecast         2.6    -1.2    -1.3     0.0    -1.0    -1.7

                         Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18

 MNI Chicago               64.3    65.4    65.6    67.8    65.7    61.9

 Phila. Fed Index          25.8    28.8    24.3    27.9    22.2    25.8

 Empire State Index        23.8    28.1    20.9    19.6    17.7    13.1

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]