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MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February Sales Seen +0.3% On Gas>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% in 
February after a 0.2% rebound in January. Not seasonally adjusted 
industry motor vehicle sales were roughly steady in February, while AAA 
reported that gasoline prices rose modestly in mid-February from one 
month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% excluding motor 
vehicles after a 0.9% rebound in January. 
     Analysts underestimated the rebound in January sales, particularly 
the underlying pace. Recent misses in past February suggest an upside 
risk for sales, though there was a notable overestimate in February 
2018. 
                         Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19
Retail Sales forecast:
 Median                     0.6     0.5     0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.3
 Range High                 0.8     0.9     0.6     0.2     0.5     0.5
 Range Low                  0.5     0.2    -0.2     0.0    -0.9    -0.4
Actual result               0.1     0.8     0.2    -1.2     0.2    #N/A
 Median-Actual              0.5    -0.3    -0.1     1.3    -0.3    #N/A
Historical comparison:  Feb.-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17  Feb-18
 Median                     0.5     0.2     0.3    -0.2     0.1     0.4
 Range High                 1.0     0.4     0.4    -0.1     0.2     0.5
 Range Low                 -0.5    -0.1     0.1    -0.7    -0.1     0.1
Actual result               1.1     0.3    -0.6    -0.1     0.1    -0.1
 Median-Actual             -0.6    -0.1     0.9    -0.1     0.0     0.5
                         Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19
Retail ex-autos Forecast:
 Median                     0.4     0.5     0.1     0.0     0.2     0.4
 Range High                 0.7     0.8     0.5     0.2     0.9     0.6
 Range Low                  0.2     0.2    -0.2    -0.2    -0.6    -0.2
Actual result:             -0.1     0.7     0.2    -1.8     0.9    #N/A
 Median-Actual              0.5    -0.2    -0.1     1.8    -0.7    #N/A
Historical comparison:   Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17  Feb-18
 Median                     0.5     0.1     0.5    -0.3     0.2     0.5
 Range High                 1.0     0.3     0.7    -0.1     0.2     0.7
 Range Low                 -0.7    -0.2     0.3    -0.7     0.1     0.3
Actual result               1.0     0.3    -0.1    -0.1     0.2     0.2
 Median-Actual             -0.5    -0.2     0.6    -0.2     0.0     0.3
                                 Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19
NA-Made Vehicle Sales, mln units    7.6     7.4     7.5     7.1     7.1
*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM, Ford
AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.911   2.686   2.413   2.232   2.273
 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A     -7.7   -10.2    -7.5     1.8
Consumer confidence               137.9   136.4   126.6   131.4   124.1
Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*
 Automobile                        14.0    13.8    13.1    12.4    14.1
 Home                               6.4     6.4     5.9     5.4     6.1
 Major appliance                   53.8    54.8    49.0    48.6    48.7
--
* Respondents answering "yes"
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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