MNI:US Data Forecast Focus: January Industrial Prod Seen +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2% in

January after a 0.3% rise in December. Factory payrolls rose by 13,000 in

January, while auto production jobs rose by 1,000 and the factory workweek

shortened slightly to 40.8 hours. The ISM production index rebounded sharply to

60.5 in the current month from 54.1 in the previous month. Utilities production

is expected to partially rebound in the month after a 6.3% plunge in December,

as temperatures returned to below-normal levels in January, in some cases to

record lows. Mining production is forecast to dip after gain in the previous two

months. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise slightly to 78.8% in December.

     Analysts underestimated industrial production in three of the last four

months, but historical data point strongly to the chance of an overestimate for

this month's release.

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Industrial Production:            Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

Forecast:

Median                               0.4     0.2     0.1     0.5     0.1     0.2

High                                 0.7     0.6     0.3     0.7     0.4     0.2

Low                                 -0.3     0.1    -0.4     0.3    -0.5    -0.2

Actual result                        0.4     0.3     0.1     0.6     0.3    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.0    -0.1     0.0    -0.1    -0.2    #N/A

Historical Comparison:            Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18

Median                               0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4     0.9     0.2

High                                 0.6     0.6     0.9     0.7     1.2     0.3

Low                                 -0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.3     0.5    -0.3

Actual result                       -0.1    -0.3     0.2     0.9     0.8    -0.1

Median-Actual                        0.2     0.5     0.2    -0.5     0.1     0.3

Capacity Utilization:             Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

Forecast:

Median                              78.3    78.2    78.1    78.7    78.4    78.8

High                                78.5    78.3    78.3    78.8    78.7    78.8

Low                                 78.1    78.0    77.9    78.5    78.3    78.4

Actual result                       78.1    78.1    78.4    78.5    78.7    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.2     0.1    -0.3     0.2    -0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison:            Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18

Median                              78.8    79.3    79.9    76.7    75.6    78.0

High                                79.3    79.6    80.2    77.0    76.1    78.4

Low                                 78.5    79.1    79.7    76.4    75.4    77.0

Actual result                       78.8    78.5    79.4    77.1    75.5    77.5

Median-Actual                        0.0     0.8     0.5    -0.4     0.1     0.5

                                  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

NA-Made Veh Sales Ex. GM,

Ford                                 7.6     7.8     7.6     7.4     7.6     7.1

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg              0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.3    -0.1

Factory Jobs (000's)                   8      18      29      27      20      13

Auto Prod Jobs (000's)                 2       3       7      -2       2       1

Mining Jobs (000's)                    8       4       6      -3       4       7

Levels:

ISM Mfg PMI                         60.8    59.5    57.5    58.8    54.3    56.6

ISM Mfg Production                  62.4    63.1    59.3    59.9    54.1    60.5

Phila. Fed Index                    13.0    21.4    19.7    11.9     9.1    17.0

Empire State Index                  24.3    18.8    20.0    21.4    11.5     3.9

Chicago PMI                         63.9    61.5    59.4    63.5    63.8    56.7

Factory Workweek                    41.0    40.9    40.8    40.8    40.9    40.8

Factory Overtime                     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.6     3.5

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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