MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January ISM Mfg Index Seen 54.1>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to dip 

slightly to a reading of 54.1 in January after falling to a revised 54.3 

in December. Regional conditions data have been mixed, while the flash 

Markit estimate rose to 54.9 from 53.8 in December. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated the December index despite the 

weak regional data preceeding it. There have been underestimates in the 

last two January reports, so a strong rebound in the index is possible.

Forecast:                Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

 Median                    57.9    60.0    59.0    57.4    58.0    54.1

 Range High                58.0    60.5    60.0    58.3    58.3    55.0

 Range Low                 57.0    58.0    58.0    56.7    56.5    53.8

Actual result              61.3    59.8    57.7    59.3    54.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual             -3.4     0.2     1.3    -1.9     3.9    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18

 Median                    51.0    56.0    55.0    48.3    55.0    58.8

 Range High                52.0    57.0    56.5    49.3    56.0    60.0

 Range Low                 49.5    55.3    54.0    48.0    54.7    57.7

Actual result              53.1    51.3    53.5    48.2    56.0    59.1

 Median-Actual             -2.1     4.7     1.5     0.1    -1.0    -0.3

                         Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

 MNI Chicago               63.9    61.5    59.4    63.5    63.8    56.7

 Phila. Fed Index          13.0    21.4    19.7    11.9     9.1    17.0

 Empire State Index        24.3    18.8    20.0    21.4    11.5     3.9

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]