MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: July Industrial Prod Seen +0.4%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% 

in July after a rebound in June. Factory payrolls rose by 37,000 in 

June, while auto production jobs rose by 6,000 and the factory workweek 

was unchanged at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index fell to 58.5 in 

the current month from 62.3 in the previous month. Utilities production 

is expected to continue its downward trend in the month, while mining 

production is forecast to post a sixth straight gain. Capacity 

utilization is forecast to rise slightly to 78.2% from 78.0% in June. 

     Analysts slightly underestimated industrial production in June, as 

manufacturuing production rebounded. There has been a trend of 

underestimates for July industrial production, with low misses in eight 

of the last 10 years.

Industrial Production:    Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

Forecast:

 Median                      0.4     0.4     0.6     0.2     0.5     0.4

 High                        0.8     0.9     1.0     0.5     0.7     0.7

 Low                         0.0     0.1     0.1    -0.6     0.4     0.2

Actual result                1.1     0.5     0.7    -0.1     0.6    #N/A

 Median-Actual              -0.7    -0.1    -0.1     0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:    Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                      0.5     0.3     0.3     0.4     0.3     0.3

 High                        0.8     0.5     0.4     0.9     0.5     0.5

 Low                         0.2     0.0    -0.2    -0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                0.6     0.0     0.4     0.6     0.7     0.2

 Median-Actual              -0.1     0.3    -0.1    -0.2    -0.4     0.1

Capacity Utilization:     Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

Forecast:

 Median                     77.8    77.9    78.4    78.0    78.2    78.2

 High                       78.1    78.2    78.7    78.2    78.4    78.5

 Low                        77.4    77.7    78.2    77.4    78.1    78.0

Actual result               78.1    78.0    78.0    77.9    78.0    #N/A

 Median-Actual              -0.3    -0.1     0.4     0.1     0.2    #N/A

Historical Comparison:    Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                     79.2    77.9    79.2    78.1    75.6    76.7

 High                       79.5    78.1    79.5    79.9    75.8    76.9

 Low                        79.0    77.7    78.7    77.6    75.4    76.6

Actual result               79.3    77.6    79.2    78.0    75.9    76.7

 Median-Actual              -0.1     0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.3     0.0

                          Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex.   10.0    10.2     9.9     9.9    10.3     9.9

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      1.0    -0.1     0.5    -0.1     0.3     0.2

Factory Jobs (000's)          31      21      28      23      33      37

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)        4       0       1      -7      11       6

Mining Jobs (000's)            9       8       9       3       7      -4

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI               60.8    59.3    57.3    58.7    60.2    58.1

  ISM Mfg Production        62.0    61.0    57.2    61.5    62.3    58.5

  Phila. Fed Index          25.8    22.3    23.2    34.4    19.9    25.7

  Empire State Index        13.1    22.5    15.8    20.1    25.0    22.6

  Chicago PMI               61.9    57.4    57.6    62.7    64.1    65.5

  Factory Workweek          41.0    40.9    41.0    40.8    40.9    40.9

  Factory Overtime           3.7     3.6     3.6     3.4     3.5     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]