MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: June Payrolls Seen +195,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 195,000 

in June after a stronger-than-expected 223,000 rise in May. The 

unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.8% after falling further to 

the decades-low level in the previous month. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise by 0.3% for the second month in a row, after the upside 

surprise   last month, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 

34.5 hours for the fifth consecutive month. 

     Analysts underestimated payrolls in May, as gains were widespread. 

There have been underestimates in each of the last five June reports, so 

another surprisingly large gain is possible. 

Forecast:                  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18

 Median                       185     210     195     185     194     195

 Range High                   230     250     250     255     217     212

 Range Low                    160     175     130     145     169     180

Actual original result        200     313     103     164     223    #N/A

 Median-Actual                -15    -103      92      21     -29    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Jun-12  Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17

 Median                       100     160     215     220     178     170

 Range High                   165     175     250     250     210     210

 Range Low                     75     125     199     190     130     138

Actual original result         80     195     288     223     287     222

 Median-Actual                 20     -35     -73      -3    -109     -52

                           Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18

ISM Mfg Employment           54.2    59.7    57.3    54.2    56.3    56.0

ISM Nonmfg Employment        61.6    55.0    56.6    53.6    54.1    53.6

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       37.2    39.1    39.5    38.2    42.1    40.0

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   20.9    24.0    23.8    22.7    26.5    25.1

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd    -16      -8       9       6     -10      -5

  4-week mvg avg                5     -14      -2       7     -18       8

 Continuing claims            -14       0     -46     -43     -92     -35

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH    UNCH     1.4    -1.4    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    241     241     198     170     189     177

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]