MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: March CPI Seen +0.4% On Gas>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% in March 

after a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Gasoline prices are expected to 

post a further gain, as suggested by the monthly AAA data. Food prices 

are expected to moderate after posting a 0.4% rise in February. The core 

CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a below trend 0.1% increase in 

the previous month. Lower vehicle prices and a plunge in drug prices 

were factors. 

     Analysts correctly estimated headline CPI in February and slightly 

overestimated core CPI, with declines in vehicle priced and drug prices 

key factors. For March CPI, there is a slight tendency to overestimate 

both overall and core prices.

                             Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.3     0.0    -0.2     0.1     0.2     0.4

 Range High                     0.4     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.3     0.5

 Range Low                      0.2     0.0    -0.2     0.0     0.1     0.3

Actual result                   0.3     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual                  0.0     0.0    -0.1     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:       Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17  Mar-18

 Median                        -0.1     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.0     0.0

 Range High                     0.2     0.3     0.4     0.4     0.1     0.1

 Range Low                     -0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.2    -0.1    -0.1

Actual result                  -0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1    -0.3    -0.1

 Median-Actual                  0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.3     0.1

                             Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2

 Range Low                      0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1

Actual result                   0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual                  0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:       Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17  Mar-18

 Median                         0.2    -0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                      0.1    -0.3     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                   0.1    -0.2     0.2     0.1    -0.1     0.2

 Median-Actual                  0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.3     0.0

Change in:

                                     Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.686   2.413   2.232   2.273   2.492

  mo/mo pct change                     #N/A   -10.2    -7.5     1.8     9.6

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              60.7    54.9    49.6    49.4    54.3

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           64.3    58.0    59.4    54.4    58.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]