MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: May CPI Seen +0.1%, Gas Drop>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in May after 

a 0.3%  gain in the previous month. Gasoline prices are expected to be 

little changed, with some upside risk suggested by the monthly AAA data. 

Food prices are expected to rebound after posting a 0.1% decline in 

April. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a string of 0.1% 

gains. Apparel prices should rebound after declines in the previous two 

months on technical factors.  

     Analysts slightly overestimated overall and core CPI in April, 

partly owing to another decline in apparel prices. For May CPI, there 

is a slight tilt toward overestimates, but overall the data have been 

well forecasted.

                             Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                        -0.2     0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4     0.1

 Range High                    -0.1     0.1     0.3     0.5     0.5     0.2

 Range Low                     -0.2     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.1

Actual result                  -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.4     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:       May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17  May-18

 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.5     0.3     0.0     0.2

 Range High                     0.3     0.3     0.6     0.6     0.0     0.3

 Range Low                     -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2    -0.5     0.1

Actual result                   0.1     0.4     0.4     0.2    -0.1     0.2

                             Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                      0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                   0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:       May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17  May-18

 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                      0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                   0.2     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2

Change in:

                                     Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.232   2.273   2.492   2.748   2.860

  mo/mo pct change                     #N/A     1.8     9.6    10.3     4.1

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              49.6    49.4    54.3    50.0    53.2

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           59.4    54.4    58.7    55.7    55.4

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]