MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: May Industrial Prod Seen +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise by 

0.2% in May after a 0.5% decrease in March. Factory payrolls rose by 

3,000 in May, as did auto production jobs, while the factory workweek 

was unchanged at 40.6 hours. The ISM production index fell to 51.3 in 

the current month  from 52.3 in the previous month. Utilities production 

is expected to rebound in the month after a 3.5% decrease in April, led 

by increased utilities production. Mining production is forecast to 

decline after a 1.6% rebound in the previous month. Capacity utilization 

is forecast to rise to 78.0% after falling to 77.9% in April.      

     Analysts overestimated industrial production in each of the last 

four months, but in April the issue was a huge drop in utilities, as 

mining finally rebounded. Manufacturing productions slipped further. 

Historical data are heavily tilted toward overestimates, which have 

occurred in eight of the last 10 years and each of the last four years. 

Industrial Production:     Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

Forecast:

 Median                       0.1     0.2     0.4     0.2     0.0     0.2

 High                         0.4     0.2     1.1     0.4     0.3     0.5

 Low                         -0.5    -0.2     0.0    -0.2    -0.5    -0.1

Actual result                 0.3    -0.6     0.1    -0.1    -0.5    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17  May-18

 Median                       0.2     0.5     0.2    -0.3     0.2     0.2

 High                         0.5     0.7     0.4     0.3     0.5     0.5

 Low                         -0.1     0.2     0.1    -0.6    -0.1    -0.6

Actual result                 0.0     0.6    -0.2    -0.4     0.0    -0.1

Capacity Utilization:      Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

Forecast:

 Median                      78.4    78.8    78.5    79.2    78.7    78.0

 High                        78.7    78.8    79.0    79.4    79.0    78.1

 Low                         78.3    78.4    78.0    78.2    78.4    77.7

Actual result                78.7    78.2    78.2    78.8    77.9    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17  May-18

 Median                      77.9    78.9    78.2    75.1    76.8    78.0

 High                        78.1    79.0    78.6    75.5    77.0    78.2

 Low                         77.4    78.6    78.2    74.9    76.6    77.4

Actual result                77.6    79.1    78.1    74.9    76.6    77.9

                           Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19

NA-Made Veh Sales Ex. GM,     7.6     7.1     7.1     7.7     7.1     7.7

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg       0.3    -0.1    -0.1    -0.1    -0.1     0.0

Factory Jobs (000's)           20      17       8      -3       5       3

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)         1      -1       2      -7      -2       3

Mining Jobs (000's)             4       5      -2       1       1       0

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                54.3    56.6    54.2    55.3    52.8    52.1

  ISM Mfg Production         54.1    60.5    54.8    55.8    52.3    51.3

  Phila. Fed Index            9.1    17.0    -4.1    13.7     8.5    16.6

  Empire State Index         11.5     3.9     8.8     3.7    10.1    17.4

  Chicago PMI                63.8    56.7    64.7    58.7    52.6    54.2

  Factory Workweek           40.9    40.8    40.7    40.7    40.6    40.6

  Factory Overtime            3.6     3.5     3.5     3.4     3.4     3.4

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]