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Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:35 GMT Dec 12/07:35 EST Dec 12
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in November
after 0.4% increases in the previous two months. Energy prices are expected to
rise after a flat October reading, while food prices are expected to temper a
bit after 0.5% gain. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise
0.2% after an above-expectation 0.4% increase in the previous month that was led
by a 1.1% jump in trade services prices. Excluding trade services as well as
food and energy, PPI is expected to post a modest gain.
     Analysts sharply underestimated final demand PPI in October, as food and
trade services prices surged to offset a flat reading for energy prices. The
misses in the last 10 November releases have been about evenly distributed, with
four overestimates and six underestimates, including the most recent two years.
Likewise for core PPI, which was underestimated in October, and as seen
underestimates in the most recent two November releases. There were four correct
estimates in the last 10 years and only two overestimates, so another upside
surprise is possible.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17
Overall PPI Forecast:
Median                               0.0     0.2     0.3     0.4     0.1     0.3
Range High                           0.1     0.3     0.4     0.6     0.3     0.5
Range Low                           -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.2     0.0     0.2
Actual result                        0.1    -0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4    #N/A
vs median forecast                  -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.0    -0.3    #N/A
Historical Comparison             Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16
Median                               0.2    -0.5     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.2
Range High                           0.6     0.0     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.3
Range Low                           -0.3    -0.9    -0.2    -0.4    -0.3     0.1
Actual result                        0.3    -0.8    -0.1    -0.2     0.3     0.4
vs median forecast                  -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.1    -0.3    -0.2
                                  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17
Core PPI Forecast:
Median                               0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
Range High                           0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2
Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0
Actual result                        0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.4     0.4    #N/A
vs median forecast                   0.0     0.3     0.1    -0.2    -0.2    #N/A
Historical comparison:            Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16
Median                               0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2
Range High                           0.3     0.4     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
Range Low                            0.0    -0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1
Actual result                        0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.3     0.4
less median forecast                 0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.2    -0.2
NOTE: From Jan. 2014
forward, forecast data are
for Final Demand PPI and
Core
                                          Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17
USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index
(% chg)                                     -2.9    -2.0    -1.7    -5.2    #N/A
ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   62.0    62.0    71.5    68.5    65.5
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                55.7    57.9    66.3    62.7    60.7
      
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]