MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: November Industrial Prod Seen +0.3%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% 

in November after a 0.9% surge in the previous month. Factory payrolls 

rose by 31,000 in November, while auto production jobs were up 2,000 and 

the factory workweek held steady at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index 

rose to 63.9 in the current month from 61.0 in the previous month. 

Utilities production is expected to decline in the month after a 2.0% 

October gain, as the weather was warmer than normal, while mining 

production is forecast to rebound after posting a 1.3% decline due to 

increase oil and gas extraction. Capacity utilization is forecast to 

rise to 77.2% from 77.0% in October. 

     Analysts underestimated industrial production in both September and 

October, as the rebound from the hurricane-impacted August report 

comtinued. Recent November misses have been mixed, though there have 

been overestimates in the most recent two years. 

Industrial Production:    Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

Forecast:

 Median                      0.3     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.5     0.3

 High                        0.5     0.5     0.5     0.8     1.0     0.8

 Low                         0.2     0.1    -1.3    -0.9     0.3     0.0

Actual result                0.4     0.2    -0.9     0.3     0.9    #N/A

 vs median forecast         -0.1     0.1     1.0    -0.1    -0.4    #N/A

Historical Comparison:    Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

 Median                      0.2     0.2     0.6     0.6    -0.3    -0.3

 High                        0.7     0.7     0.9     1.2    -0.1     0.1

 Low                        -0.2    -1.1     0.2     0.5    -0.6    -0.7

Actual result               -0.2     1.1     1.1     1.3    -0.6    -0.4

 vs median forecast          0.4    -0.9    -0.5    -0.7     0.3     0.1

Capacity Utilization:     Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

Forecast:

 Median                     76.8    76.7    76.8    76.2    76.3    77.2

 High                       76.9    76.9    77.0    76.6    76.9    77.5

 Low                        76.6    76.6    75.6    75.4    76.2    77.1

Actual result               76.6    76.7    76.1    76.0    77.0    #N/A

 vs median forecast          0.2     0.0     0.7     0.2    -0.7    #N/A

Historical Comparison:    Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

 Median                     77.8    78.0    78.4    79.4    77.3    75.0

 High                       78.1    78.3    78.6    79.6    77.5    75.5

 Low                        77.3    76.8    78.2    79.2    77.0    74.8

Actual result               77.8    78.4    79.0    80.1    77.0    75.0

 vs median forecast          0.0    -0.4    -0.6    -0.7     0.3     0.0

                          Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sale  12.8    12.9    12.3    14.2    13.8    13.3

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      0.3     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.4     0.2

Factory Jobs (000's)          21     -11      44       9      23      31

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)        3     -27      23      -3      -1       2

Mining Jobs (000's)            6       1       5       4       2       5

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI               57.8    56.3    58.8    60.8    58.7    58.2

  ISM Mfg Production        62.4    60.6    61.0    62.2    61.0    63.9

  Phila. Fed Index          27.6    19.5    18.9    23.8    27.9    22.7

  Empire State Index        19.8     9.8    25.2    24.4    30.2    19.4

  Chicago PMI               65.7    58.9    58.9    65.2    66.2    63.9

  Factory Workweek          40.8    40.9    40.8    40.8    40.9    40.9

  Factory Overtime           3.3     3.3     3.4     3.3     3.5     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]