MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: November Payrolls Seen +190,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 

in November after a much stronger-than-expected 250,000 rise in October, 

a rebound from the previous month's weak reading. The unemployment rate 

is expected to hold steady at 3.7% for a third straight month. Hourly 

earnings are forecast to rise 0.3%, with the year/year rate likely to 

slip back from the 3.1% rate posted in October due to base effects. The 

average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours in October. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated payrolls in October after an 

overestimate in September. Underestimates in seven of the last 10 

November reports suggest another upside surprise is possible for this 

month. 

Forecast:                  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

 Median                       195     190     195     188     190     190

 Range High                   212     207     230     220     231     220

 Range Low                    180     182     166     163     160     140

Actual original result        213     157     201     134     250    #N/A

 Median-Actual                -18      33      -6      54     -60    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17

 Median                        95     180     235     200     180     200

 Range High                   171     200     270     230     200     250

 Range Low                     25     140     200     170     163     165

Actual original result        146     203     321     211     178     228

 Median-Actual                -51     -23     -86     -11       2     -28

                           Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

ISM Mfg Employment           56.0    56.5    58.5    58.8    56.8    58.4

ISM Nonmfg Employment        53.6    56.1    56.7    62.4    59.7    58.4

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       40.4    42.8    42.3    44.1    45.4    46.6

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   25.3    28.0    30.2    30.0    32.0    34.4

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd     -5     -10       2      -8       8      15

  4-week mvg avg                8    UNCH      -7      -8       6       7

 Continuing claims            -35      40     -37     -47     -25      67

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH     1.2    UNCH    UNCH     2.0     2.1

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    178     211     162     209     225     179

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]