MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: November Payrolls Seen +200,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 200,000 

in November after hurricane-related fluctuations in September and 

October, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% 

in October. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% after a flat 

October reading and a 0.5% surge in September, and the average workweek 

is expected to continue at 34.4 hours, where it has been for the last 

four months. 

     Analysts overestimated payrolls in each of the last three months, 

but upward revisions to September and October made those misses less 

pronounced. Past data for November show misses have been tilted to the 

low side, with seven underestimates in the last 10 years and five of the 

last six years, so maybe the recent trend of overestimates could change. 

Forecast:                  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

 Median                       170     181     180      70     315     200

 Range High                   210     220     200     125     350     250

 Range Low                    138     170     160     -45     200     165

Actual original result        222     209     156     -33     261    #N/A

 vs med. forecast             -52     -28      24     103      54    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

 Median                       112      95     180     235     200     180

 Range High                   155     171     200     270     230     200

 Range Low                     70      25     140     200     170     163

Actual original result        120     146     203     321     211     178

 vs med. forecast              -8     -51     -23     -86     -11       2

                           Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

ISM Mfg Employment           57.2    55.2    59.9    60.3    59.8    59.7

ISM Nonmfg Employment        55.8    53.6    56.2    56.8    57.5    55.3

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       32.0    33.2    34.4    32.7    36.7    37.1

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   13.6    14.5    16.0    14.7    19.6    20.2

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      9       8      -2      28     -37      17

  4-week mvg avg                4      -1      -4      28     -20      -9

 Continuing claims             21      20     -11     -43     -11      60

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH    UNCH      1.7    -1.7   UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    192     198     228      96     235     190

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]