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Free AccessMNI:US Data Forecast Focus:October CPI Seen +0.1%,Core +0.2%>
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise only 0.1% in October
following a 0.5% energy-related rise in September. Analysts expect
energy prices to decline after September's 6.1% surge. The core CPI is
forecast to rise 0.2% following an on-trend 0.1% increase in September.
Analysts slightly overerestimated overall CPI in September, both
overall and ex-food and energy. Misses in October have been mixed, but
small, for CPI.
May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
Overall CPI Forecast:
Median 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1
Range High 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.2
Range Low -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0
Actual result -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 #N/A
vs median forecast 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 #N/A
Historical comparison: Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16
Median 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4
Range High 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5
Range Low -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3
Actual result -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4
vs median forecast 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
Core CPI Forecast:
Median 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Range High 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Range Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Actual result 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 #N/A
vs median forecast 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 #N/A
Historical comparison: Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16
Median 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Range High 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Range Low -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Actual result 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
vs median forecast 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Change in:
Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal) 2.329 2.260 2.351 2.661 2.485
mo/mo pct change #N/A -3.0 4.0 13.2 -6.6
ISM Mfg Index Price Index 55.0 62.0 62.0 71.5 68.5
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index 52.1 55.7 57.9 66.3 62.7
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.