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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Tilting Lower

JAPAN

Four-Way LDP Leadership Contest Kicks Off

US TSYS

Belly-Led Cheapening In Wake Of Retail Sales

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Turning More Neutral

ECB

ECB Plays Down FT Story

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise only 0.1% in October 
following a 0.5% energy-related rise in September. Analysts expect 
energy prices to decline after September's 6.1% surge. The core CPI is 
forecast to rise 0.2% following an on-trend 0.1% increase in September. 
     Analysts slightly overerestimated overall CPI in September, both 
overall and ex-food and energy. Misses in October have been mixed, but 
small, for CPI. 
                             May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17
Overall CPI Forecast:
 Median                         0.0     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.6     0.1
 Range High                     0.0     0.2     0.2     0.4     0.7     0.2
 Range Low                     -0.5     0.0     0.1     0.2     0.5     0.0
Actual result                  -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.4     0.5    #N/A
 vs median forecast             0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.1    #N/A
Historical comparison:       Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16
 Median                         0.0     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.2     0.4
 Range High                     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.5
 Range Low                     -0.1     0.0    -0.1    -0.2     0.1     0.3
Actual result                  -0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.4
 vs median forecast             0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0
                             May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17
Core CPI Forecast:
 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
 Range High                     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3
 Range Low                      0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1
Actual result                   0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1    #N/A
 vs median forecast             0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1    #N/A
Historical comparison:       Oct-11  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16
 Median                         0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2
 Range High                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
 Range Low                     -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2
Actual result                   0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1
 vs median forecast             0.0    -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1
Change in:
                                     Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17
AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.329   2.260   2.351   2.661   2.485
  mo/mo pct change                      #N/A   -3.0     4.0    13.2    -6.6
ISM Mfg Index Price Index              55.0    62.0    62.0    71.5    68.5
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           52.1    55.7    57.9    66.3    62.7
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]