MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: September Payrolls Seen +188,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 188,000 

in September after a stronger-than-expected 201,000 rise in August. The 

effects of Hurricane Florence may be limited because it occurred very 

late in the survey week. The unemployment rate is expected to slip to 

3.8% after staying at 3.9% in August after rounding. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise by 0.3% after solid gains in the previous two months,  

but a 0.5% gain in September 2017 due to the hurricanes that month 

should reduce the year/year rate this year. The average workweek is 

expected to hold steady for another month at 34.5 hours.       

     Analysts slightly underestimated payrolls in August after an 

overestimate in July. Overestimates in seven of the last 10 years and 

each of the last three years for the September reports suggest a 

downside disappointment is possible for this month. 

Forecast:                  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

 Median                       185     194     195     190     195     188

 Range High                   255     217     212     207     230     220

 Range Low                    145     169     180     182     166     163

Actual original result        164     223     213     157     201    #N/A

 Median-Actual                 21     -29     -18      33      -6    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16  Sep-17

 Median                       110     185     215     200     170      70

 Range High                   140     240     250     225     200     125

 Range Low                     80     154     195     180     130     -45

Actual original result        114     148     248     142     156     -33

 Median-Actual                 -4      37     -33      58      14     103

                           Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

ISM Mfg Employment           54.2    56.3    56.0    56.5    58.5    58.8

ISM Nonmfg Employment        53.6    54.1    53.6    56.1    56.7    62.4

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       38.2    42.1    40.4    42.8    42.3    45.7

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   22.7    26.5    25.3    28.0    30.2    32.5

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      6     -10      -5     -10       2      -8

  4-week mvg avg                7     -18       8    UNCH      -7      -8

 Continuing claims            -43     -92     -35      40     -37     -47

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     -1.4    UNCH    UNCH      1.2   UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    170     196     178     211     168     230

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]