MNI: US Data Forecast Focus:September Sales Seen +0.6% On Auto

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% in September

after a weaker than expected 0.1% gain in August. Not seasonally adjusted

industry motor vehicle sales were modestly stronger in September, while AAA

reported that gasoline prices slipped modestly in mid-September from one month

earlier. Sales may have been held back in North Carolina and South Carolina due

to Hurricane Florence, but the building materials sales should be boosted in the

coming months by the rebuilding efforts. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4%

excluding motor vehicles after a 0.3% rise in August. Analysts see solid gains

for the control readings as well, a strong ending for third quarter consumption.

     Analysts sharply overestimated retail sales growth in August, both overall

and ex-motor vehicle, but upward revisions to July sales offset some of that

downside surprise. Misses for past September data have been mixed, so there is

not clear risk.

                                  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Retail Sales forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.4     0.6     0.1     0.4     0.6

Range High                           0.5     0.6     0.8     0.5     0.5     0.8

Range Low                            0.2     0.0     0.5    -0.4     0.3     0.5

Actual result                        0.3     0.8     0.5     0.5     0.1    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.0    -0.4     0.1    -0.4     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16  Sep-17

Median                               0.8     0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.6     1.9

Range High                           1.3     0.5     0.1     0.3     0.8     2.7

Range Low                            0.5    -0.1    -0.5    -0.1     0.4     1.4

Actual result                        1.1    -0.1    -0.3     0.1     0.6     1.6

Median-Actual                       -0.3     0.3     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.3

                                  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

Median                               0.5     0.5     0.3     0.4     0.5     0.4

Range High                           0.7     0.6     0.5     0.5     0.7     0.7

Range Low                            0.4     0.2     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.2

Actual result:                       0.3     0.9     0.4     0.6     0.3    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.2    -0.4    -0.1    -0.2     0.2    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16  Sep-17

Median                               0.7     0.5     0.3    -0.1     0.4     0.9

Range High                           1.1     0.7     0.4     0.1     0.5     1.9

Range Low                            0.2     0.1     0.0    -0.3     0.1     0.7

Actual result                        1.1     0.4    -0.2    -0.3     0.5     1.0

Median-Actual                       -0.4     0.1     0.5     0.2    -0.1    -0.1

                                          May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units,

saar                                         3.0     3.1     3.0     2.9     3.0

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units,

saar                                         6.9     7.2     6.9     7.2     7.2

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include

GM

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)                2.813   2.915   2.862   2.857   2.843

mo/mo pct change                            #N/A     3.6    -1.8    -0.2    -0.5

Consumer confidence                        128.8   127.1   127.9   134.7   138.4

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6

mo:*

Automobile                                  12.1    10.9    11.1    13.0    13.4

Home                                         5.5     6.1     5.4     6.3     6.6

Major appliance                             50.8    49.7    47.8    53.6    52.9

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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