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MNI US Employment Insight, Dec'23: Five Fed Cuts In 2024 Deemed Excessive

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth was close to expectations in November, even if private job creation was more underwhelming including a relative lack of breadth.
  • However, every other main aspect of the report came in stronger than expected, even if rounding flattered some of the surprise to consensus.
  • We had cautioned before the release of the potential for a pullback in the five cuts priced for 2024 in the lead-up to the release, and this played out with the market moving closer to 4.5 cuts over the year.
  • Some analysts have noted similar, looking for a start to rate cuts closer to mid-year versus the more than 50/50 call that had been priced for March beforehand.
  • CPI for November follows quickly on Tuesday before the FOMC decision with its updated SEP on Wed.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT BELOW:

USEmploymentReportDec2023.pdf


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