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MNI US Employment Insight, Feb'23: Storming Report Helps Higher For Longer Theme

Bumper payrolls growth and an unemployment rate at multi-decade lows sees Fed rate path soar

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Non-farm payrolls surged in January, rising 517k vs consensus 189k, whilst the annual benchmark revision left a notably stronger than first thought trend through 2H22 and with strong revisions for hours worked.
  • The unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 1969, an even more hawkish surprise than analyst survey skew had indicated, despite population control-adjusted household employment was notably softer.
  • Against that backdrop, AHE was one of the weaker areas of the report, recording a monthly pace in January that could be consistent with Powell’s abating a little bit, but even that came with upward revisions.
  • Fed terminal pricing closed 12bps higher at 5.02% and has since continued to push onto 5.09%, whilst 2H23 cuts have been trimmed significantly to 34bps from 50bps prior to the release.

Please find the full report including summaries from twenty analysts here:

USEmploymentReportFeb2023.pdf

153 words

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Non-farm payrolls surged in January, rising 517k vs consensus 189k, whilst the annual benchmark revision left a notably stronger than first thought trend through 2H22 and with strong revisions for hours worked.
  • The unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 1969, an even more hawkish surprise than analyst survey skew had indicated, despite population control-adjusted household employment was notably softer.
  • Against that backdrop, AHE was one of the weaker areas of the report, recording a monthly pace in January that could be consistent with Powell’s abating a little bit, but even that came with upward revisions.
  • Fed terminal pricing closed 12bps higher at 5.02% and has since continued to push onto 5.09%, whilst 2H23 cuts have been trimmed significantly to 34bps from 50bps prior to the release.

Please find the full report including summaries from twenty analysts here:

USEmploymentReportFeb2023.pdf