February 06, 2023 13:39 GMT
MNI US Employment Insight, Feb'23: Storming Report Helps Higher For Longer Theme
Bumper payrolls growth and an unemployment rate at multi-decade lows sees Fed rate path soar
- Non-farm payrolls surged in January, rising 517k vs consensus 189k, whilst the annual benchmark revision left a notably stronger than first thought trend through 2H22 and with strong revisions for hours worked.
- The unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 1969, an even more hawkish surprise than analyst survey skew had indicated, despite population control-adjusted household employment was notably softer.
- Against that backdrop, AHE was one of the weaker areas of the report, recording a monthly pace in January that could be consistent with Powell’s abating a little bit, but even that came with upward revisions.
- Fed terminal pricing closed 12bps higher at 5.02% and has since continued to push onto 5.09%, whilst 2H23 cuts have been trimmed significantly to 34bps from 50bps prior to the release.
Please find the full report including summaries from twenty analysts here: