Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Nonfarm payrolls saw a slight beat in June but also a return of large downward revisions which further increased the reliance on cyclically insensitive industries.
- The unemployment rate surprisingly increased to 4.05%, continuing a notable uptrend that has put it above where the median FOMC participant forecast it for 4Q24 just a few weeks ago in the June SEP.
- Wage growth was in line with consensus although still of note as some had seen risks skewed higher on calendar effects. A pause for Atlanta Fed wage tracker updates puts a little more weight on AHE.
- Dovish market reaction was limited as the pre-holiday run of softer-than-expected data had seen fresh net longs set in U.S. rates, instead maintaining sizeable odds of a September cut (~20bps priced).
- Of the 17 analysts reviewed, most look for a first cut in September or November but Berenberg, Commerzbank and RBC all still officially look for a December cut.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:
USEmploymentReportJuly2024.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok