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MNI US Employment Insight, Sep'23: Bolstering A “Soft Landing” Thesis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth slightly beat expectations for August but was offset by a large two-month downward revision. Aside from known idiosyncratic drags, the industry breadth was the highest since Jan and there was a surprise uptick in hours worked but that’s where any hawkish aspects of the report end.
  • Average hourly earnings were softer than expected, driven by the large non-supervisory category for its softest month since 2021, the unemployment rate increased by far more than analysts expected on a strong rise in participation and underemployment lifted notably.
  • The report was seen as evidence of growing likelihood of a soft landing scenario, as further rate hikes continued to be priced out (now seen with cumulative +1.5bp for later this month and +10bp to a terminal in November) but also with modestly smaller cuts thereafter.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USEmploymentReportSep2023.pdf


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