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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Core CPI inflation was again stronger than expected in March at 0.36% M/M (cons 0.3).
- The three-month run rate accelerated to 4.5% annualized (highest since May) whilst the six-month at 3.9% saw a second month above the Y/Y, indicating sustained recent upward momentum.
- “Supercore” inflation surged 0.65% M/M for 8.2% annualized over three months, suggesting more persistence to services inflation than just upward bias from seasonal factors in January.
- PPI details took a small amount of the sting off the CPI data, but analysts still see a core PCE increase of circa 0.28% M/M in March. It maintains a wedge to core CPI but still accelerates from the 0.26% in Feb.
- Markets have swung from 15bps priced for a first cut in June to only just fully pricing a cut in September and have less than two cuts for 2024 as a whole. The FOMC median saw three cuts at the March SEP.
- Many analysts have followed, with numerous calls of delayed start points and fewer cuts for the year.
- The burden of proof is now to the downside, with likely multiple lower inflation readings and a higher unemployment rate needed to entertain near-term rate cuts.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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