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MNI US Inflation Insight, Aug'22: A Welcome Cooling

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • CPI inflation saw a welcome cooling in inflationary pressures as supply side disruption eases, but it is just one month of data with FOMC members looking for a sustained cooling in inflation. Monthly core inflation remains well above rates consistent with the 2% target and persistent rent components run hot.
  • Markets slash odds of a third 75bp hike in Sept back to a coin toss between 50bp/75bp and cut more than 10bps from the terminal to a little under 3.6% but still higher than 3.45% prior to the stellar payrolls.
  • Post-CPI Fedspeak pushes back on changes to rate path, being too early to declare victory.
  • No clear formal changes from analyst rate calls for the Sept FOMC, who had been waiting for this CPI report after Friday’s storming payrolls. Of those seen by MNI, more analysts expect a 50bp hike than 75bp.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USInflationInsightAug2022.pdf

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