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MNI US Inflation Insight, Sep'23: Strong Core Keeps Hike Alive

US
We've just published our latest US Inflation Insight (link below):
  • September CPI was stronger than expected, including across key core measures.
  • While as usual there were some “noisy” factors involved, even “supercore” measures are showing signs of a nascent slowdown in disinflationary progress.
  • Markets reacted decisively and accordingly, with higher implied probability of an additional Fed hike in the cycle, and fewer cuts next year.
  • While the FOMC is unlikely to take action on November 1, this data alongside the strong September employment report could renew doubts on the Committee that tightening is done.

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