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MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Fed Remains Firmly On Track To Hold

MACRO ANALYSIS
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  • Data in the week ahead of the January Fed meeting was thin and overall mixed, with President Trump’s apparently softer tone on tariffs helping implied rates soften slightly toward end-week.
  • January’s preliminary Services PMI reading unexpectedly fell to its lowest since April 2024, though had some slightly less dovish details.
  • Weekly continuing claims provided a surprise on the weak side, just exceeding recent highs, but the broad report (including initial claims a touch higher than expected) didn’t materially change the story of firms dampening down on re-hiring rather than turning to layoffs to manage headcount.
  • Looking ahead to next week, the FOMC will keep the benchmark Fed funds rate on hold on January 29 for the first time in four meetings. With minimal Statement changes expected and no new rate/macro projections, the focus will be on Chair Powell’s press conference.
  • He won't totally rule out a cut at the next meeting in March, but he’ll probably reiterate that the Fed can remain patient on its next move until receiving more clarity on both inflation data and the government policy outlook (i.e. not until later in the year). Markets continue to price between 1 and 2 cuts by end-2025.
  • Aside from Tuesday’s preliminary durable goods report, data for the coming week is backloaded with the highlights being the first estimate of real GDP growth in Q4 on Thursday before the monthly PCE report for December on Friday.


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: 

US macro weekly_250124.pdf

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  • Data in the week ahead of the January Fed meeting was thin and overall mixed, with President Trump’s apparently softer tone on tariffs helping implied rates soften slightly toward end-week.
  • January’s preliminary Services PMI reading unexpectedly fell to its lowest since April 2024, though had some slightly less dovish details.
  • Weekly continuing claims provided a surprise on the weak side, just exceeding recent highs, but the broad report (including initial claims a touch higher than expected) didn’t materially change the story of firms dampening down on re-hiring rather than turning to layoffs to manage headcount.
  • Looking ahead to next week, the FOMC will keep the benchmark Fed funds rate on hold on January 29 for the first time in four meetings. With minimal Statement changes expected and no new rate/macro projections, the focus will be on Chair Powell’s press conference.
  • He won't totally rule out a cut at the next meeting in March, but he’ll probably reiterate that the Fed can remain patient on its next move until receiving more clarity on both inflation data and the government policy outlook (i.e. not until later in the year). Markets continue to price between 1 and 2 cuts by end-2025.
  • Aside from Tuesday’s preliminary durable goods report, data for the coming week is backloaded with the highlights being the first estimate of real GDP growth in Q4 on Thursday before the monthly PCE report for December on Friday.


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: 

US macro weekly_250124.pdf