MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Trend Needle Points North
Price Signal Summary – GBP Trend Needle Still Points North
- A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5311.01, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a strong short-term bear threat.
- The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north. Moving average studies have recently crossed to a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has pierced a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and the latest recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low earlier this week strengthens a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below 146.95 support. The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. The pair has recovered from its Mar 6 low.
- Gold is trading higher this week. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
- Bund futures are in consolidation mode and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next. The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. Recent gains appear corrective and the move lower this week, signals the end of the corrective cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0947 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 1.0882 @ 06:03 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0631 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0532 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
EURUSD is trading just below its recent highs and the bull cycle that started Feb 3, remains intact. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0532, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.2988/90 High Mar 12 / High Nov 8 2024
- PRICE: 1.2955 @ 06:22 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 1.2862 Low Mar 12
- SUP 2: 1.2742 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2632 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28
The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north. Moving average studies have recently crossed to a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has pierced a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2632, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 0.8398 @ 06:33 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 0.8378/8338 Low Mar 10 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and this week’s gains reinforce a bullish theme. The cross has breached 0.8419, 76.4% of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8338, the 50-day EMA. The short-term trend is in overbought territory. A pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 151.71 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.72 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 147.76 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 146.54 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 145.82 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and the latest recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low earlier this week strengthens a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. This opens 145.92 next, the Oct 4 2024 low. MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, Mar 3 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 1: 162.36 High Mar 12
- PRICE: 160.80 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 159.14 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
EURJPY has pulled back from Wednesday’s cycle high - a move down is considered corrective and the short-term trend outlook remains bullish. The cross has breached a resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. A clear break of the hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 162.70, the Jan 28 high. Initial support to watch is 159.14 the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6293 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 0.6259/6187 Low Mar 11 / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
A short-term bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact for now. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of the Feb 3 low would resume the medium-term downtrend.
USDCAD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4543 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4395 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. The pair has recovered from its Mar 6 low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the S/T bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. A break of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14
- RES 1: 128.33 High Mar 10
- PRICE: 127.45 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures are in consolidation mode and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range. Note that the contract is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains
- RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 1: 117.316 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 116.820@ 05:53 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 116.250 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
A bear threat in Bobl futures remains in play, and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. The contract is in oversold territory. Gains would be considered corrective and a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Gains Allow An Oversold Condition To Unwind
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.630 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact following the latest steep impulsive sell-off. The move down resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The trend is oversold and the latest bounce is allowing this set-up to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Short-Term Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.63 High Mar 7 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 91.34 @ Close Mar 12
- SUP 1: 91.27/90.71 Low Mar 12 / 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. Recent gains appear corrective and the move lower this week, signals the end of the corrective cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 92.63, Mar 5 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 116.98 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 116.13 @ Close Mar 12
- SUP 1: 115.77 Low Mar 12
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.56, the Mr 5 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5419.70/5575.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5326.00 @ 06:24 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 5284.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: 5202.00 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5311.01, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a strong short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 5600.00 handle.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Oversold But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 5949.30 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5757.75/5853.88 High Mar 10 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5584.50 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 5534.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5523.00 Low Sep 11 2024
- SUP 3: 5499.25 Low Sep 9 2024
- SUP 4: 5444.55 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Sights are set on the next important support at 5499.25, the Sep 9 2024 low. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5949.30, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.49 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $70.88 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
The trend condition in Brent futures is unchanged and the direction remains down. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is unchanged at $73.39, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $70.20 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $67.70 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance is $70.10, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2965.1 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2956.2 - High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2935.2 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: $2880.3/2834.0 - Low Mar 10 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
Gold is trading higher this week. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a move lower would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2834.0. The 50-day average marks a key support.
SILVER TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.397 - High Feb 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.955 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: $31.703/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Recent weakness in Silver appears to have been a correction and the latest recovery reinforces this theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high, remains exposed. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch lies at $31.703, the 50-day EMA, and $30.815, the Feb 28 low.