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MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Turn Of The Year Brings Some Twists

MACRO ANALYSIS
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We've just published our US Weekly Macro Wrap (PDF HERE). This week's macro highlights:

  • Sequential price pressures in the January CPI report exceeded all expectations, but the hawkish impact was blunted 24 hours later by relatively benign PPI details.
  • The week ended with a notably soft retail sales report, one that means that Q1 2025 goods PCE growth will have to be reconsidered to the downside absent a big reversal to the upside in February and/or revisions.
  • In other net dovish releases, the NY Fed consumer survey saw inflation expectations bely the sharp climb in the partisan-disrupted U.Mich equivalent the week prior whilst manufacturing production disappointed.
  • President Trump has also announced plans to announce reciprocal tariffs but details were lacking and the Commerce Department is due to report on a plan in April.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are ending the week at lows, with 41bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs 26bp post-CPI. 
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We've just published our US Weekly Macro Wrap (PDF HERE). This week's macro highlights:

  • Sequential price pressures in the January CPI report exceeded all expectations, but the hawkish impact was blunted 24 hours later by relatively benign PPI details.
  • The week ended with a notably soft retail sales report, one that means that Q1 2025 goods PCE growth will have to be reconsidered to the downside absent a big reversal to the upside in February and/or revisions.
  • In other net dovish releases, the NY Fed consumer survey saw inflation expectations bely the sharp climb in the partisan-disrupted U.Mich equivalent the week prior whilst manufacturing production disappointed.
  • President Trump has also announced plans to announce reciprocal tariffs but details were lacking and the Commerce Department is due to report on a plan in April.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are ending the week at lows, with 41bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs 26bp post-CPI. 
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