MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 117-295 The Key To Any Continued Recovery

*RES 4: 118-247/250 Jun 14 high, Median line Mar & May lows

*RES 3: 118-140/145 Jun 26 high, 76.4% of 118-247/117-132

*RES 2: 118-095/097 Jul 24, Jul 21 highs

*RES 1: 118-072 Jul 26 high

*PRICE: 117-320 @1006GMT

*SUP 1: 117-295/315 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 117-265/270 Jul 25 low, initial rally high Jul 13

*SUP 3: 117-235 Jul 13 low

*SUP 4: 117-200 76.4% Fibo of 117-132/118-097

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the upper end of the 117-265/117-200 support

band, before seeing a decent rebound, which moved slightly above 118-060. So

far, this has been short lived but the near term recovery bias stays intact

while any pullbacks can hold above 117-295. Main resistance however, remains

from the months 118-095/097 highs, these the bar to a 118-140/145 rise. Loss of

117-295 will caution and put 117-265 under pressure again.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 125-190/125-155 Support Back Under Pressure

*RES 4: 126-215 76.4% Fibo of 127-080/124-255

*RES 3: 126-115/120 Jun 19 low, Jul 21 high

*RES 2: 126-065 Jul 25 high

*RES 1: 126-020 Jul 26 high

*PRICE: 125-205 @1009GMT

*SUP 1: 125-190 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 125-155 Jul 25 low

*SUP 3: 125-125/130 Congestion area Jul 12-13

*SUP 4: 125-085 Jul 13 low

*COMMENTARY* The fall was held at 125-155 on Tuesday, a sharp rally on Wednesday

producing a 126-020 bounce so far. Will need to see gains back above 126-065

however, before the near term bias will return to higher again and refocus on

the 126-115/126-120 area. Support in the meantime, rises to 125-190 and ideally

this withstands any pressure if the recovery has not been a red herring. Loss

will disappoint now.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Threatens To Break Clear Of Key 152-12 Fibo Support

*RES 4: 155-02 61.8% Fibo of 157-08/151-18

*RES 3: 154-29/31 1% volatility band, Jul 21 high

*RES 2: 154-11 Jul 25 high

*RES 1: 153-13/21 Jul 27 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: 152-07 @1013GMT

*SUP 1: 152-03 Jul 27 low

*SUP 2: 151-27/28 1% volatility band, Jul 13 low 

*SUP 3: 151-18 Jul 7 low

*SUP 4: 151-08 76.4% Fibo of 149-00/157-08

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break above the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at 155-02, a

high of 154-31 seen before falling foul of some overbought conditions. This has

been exacerbated by the loss of 153-11 support, a further fall to test and break

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 152-12 already seen. 152-03 is currently the

protection against a 151-28/151-18 return. In the interim, 153-13/153-21 and

then more importantly 154-11 provide resistance.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17)  98.515 Now Provides Key Near Term Support

*RES 4: 98.630 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: 98.610 Jun 6 high

*RES 2: 98.580/590 Congestion lows May 19-Jun 8, Jun 16 high

*RES 1: 98.560/565 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.545 @1017GMT

*SUP 1: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support

*SUP 2: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.470 Apr 23 low

*SUP 4: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the 50% Fibo retrace level at 98.495 earlier in

the month, a recovery has reached the base of the 98.580-98.590 resistance area.

As a result, has become overbought in the near term and now giving back some of

those gains. In this respect, look to 98.515 for support and protection against

a return of the previous downtrend and 98.495 again. Resistance now from

98.560-98.565 ahead of 98.580-98.590 again.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]