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(Z1) Shallow Bounce

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Trend Needle Still Points North

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Still Looking For Weakness

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Key 118-140/118-145 Resistance Untouched As Yet
*RES 4: 118-247 Jun 14 high
*RES 3: 118-140/145 Jun 26 high, 76.4% of 118-247/117-132
*RES 2: 118-127 Aug 3 high
*RES 1: 118-092/105 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 118-075 @0944GMT
*SUP 1: 118-035 Aug 4 low
*SUP 2: 118-010 Aug 1 low
*SUP 3: 117-302 Jul 28 low
*SUP 4: 117-265 Jul 25 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable to progress further than 118-127 last week, leaving the more
important 118-140/118-145 area untouched for the time being. The subsequent
pullback has again met with support from the top of the 118-035/118-010 area and
this currently protects against a deeper 117-302 fall, where bigger questions
are asked of this recovery. In the meantime, 118-092/118-105 bars the way to
another upside foray toward that key 118-140/118-145 area.
     
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 125-290/125-215 Offers Downside Protection Now
*RES 4: 126-290 Jun 26 high
*RES 3: 126-215 76.4% Fibo of 127-080/124-255
*RES 2: 126-150 Aug 3 high
*RES 1: 126-080/105 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 126-050 @0949GMT
*SUP 1: 125-290 Aug 4 low, 9 day rising support line
*SUP 2: 125-215 Aug 1 low
*SUP 3: 125-155 Jul 25 low
*SUP 4: 125-060 76.4% Fibo of 124-255/126-150
*COMMENTARY* A high of 126-150 last week as the rally faltered without as yet a
test to the key Fibo resistance at 126-215. The subsequent pullback has lost
support from the Aug 2 low at 125-310 but has further levels situated between
125-290/125-215, that protect against anything more untoward at present.
Resistance from between 126-080/126-105 now needs to be navigated before near
term upside belief is revived.
     
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Rally Falters At The Upper 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: 156-27 2% volatility band 
*RES 3: 155-29 76.4% Fibo of 157-08/151-18 
*RES 2: 155-10 1% volatility band, Aug 4 high
*RES 1: 154-22/30 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 154-10 @0953GMT
*SUP 1: 153-22 Aug 4 low
*SUP 2: 153-16/17 Jul 31 high, Aug 2 low
*SUP 3: 152-24/29 Congestion area Jul 28-Aug 1
*SUP 4: 152-09 Aug 1 low
*COMMENTARY* Rally was tempered at 155-10 last week by the upper 1% volatility
band, again at this level today. The subsequent fall has reached 153-22 so far
but stronger support is anticipated from 153-16 initially and then the congested
152-29/152-24 area. Will need to lose the latter before more important support
from 152-09/152-03 comes under the spotlight. Meanwhile, look to 154-22/154-30
for resistance.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.515 Still Provides Key Near Term Support
*RES 4: 98.630 Jun 14 high
*RES 3: 98.610 Jun 6 high
*RES 2: 98.580/590 Congestion lows May 19-Jun 8, Jun 16 high
*RES 1: 98.560/565 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 98.545 @0954GMT
*SUP 1: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support
*SUP 2: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655
*SUP 3: 98.470 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*COMMENTARY* Found support from the 50% Fibo retrace level at 98.495 earlier
last month, a recovery has reached the base of the 98.580-98.590 resistance
area. As a result, has become overbought in the near term and now giving back
some of those gains. In this respect, look to 98.515 for support and protection
against a return of the previous downtrend and 98.495 again. Resistance now from
98.560-98.565 ahead of 98.580-98.590 again.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]